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Capability · 04 / 09 · Hydrodynamics

Ship Manoeuvrability Prediction

Time-domain simulation. Probabilistic answers.

Lead time · 6–12 weeksFixed-fee, fixed-scopePrincipal-ledAuthor · Sérgio Ribeiro e Silva, PhDLast reviewed ·
✦ TL;DR

Ship manoeuvrability prediction uses time-domain simulation to forecast how a vessel handles in real conditions — turning circles, zigzags, berthing windows, autonomous-manoeuvring envelopes. KDS Offshore runs probabilistic operability studies (thousands of berthings sampled from a year of metocean data) that answer how often per year a vessel can manoeuvre without tug assistance.

Overview

What this service is

A manoeuvring study has to answer a question the operator can act on: how often per year can my vessel berth without tug assistance? How much margin do I have for crosswinds? Where does a second stern thruster change the answer?

We answer those questions with a time-domain MatLab/Simulink model coupling hull, rudder (with flap, where relevant), and bow/stern thrusters, fed by a year of metocean data and a 3D-panel-method seakeeping core for the wave forces.

Our reference projects are the probabilistic operability assessments of the 610 TEU container ships *Corvo* and *Silver Mary* inside the harbour basin of Vila do Porto (Açores). We do these in close collaboration with the port authority and the operator.

See our methods →

Outcomes

Numbers we expect to defend

610 TEU
container ship analysed
Corvo and Silver Mary, Vila do Porto (Açores), 2024
Probabilistic
operability answer per year
thousands of metocean-sampled berthings, with confidence intervals
MSC.137(76)
IMO acceptance criteria validated
turning, zigzag, spiral, crash-stop
6-DoF
time-domain coupling
hull, rudder with flap, bow / stern thrusters
Deliverables

What you get

01
Manoeuvrability simulation (time-domain)
02
Operability rate calculation (% per year)
03
Thruster & rudder sizing
04
Metocean port-basin envelopes
05
Time-domain trajectories with confidence intervals
06
Hydrodynamic & aerodynamic coefficient set
Fit

When this is the right call

✓ When to use
  • A harbour where tug assistance is unreliable, expensive, or unavailable — and the operator wants a tug-free berthing window.
  • An autonomous or unmanned vessel that needs a defensible operating envelope before deployment.
  • A thruster retrofit where the question is "how much does a second bow thruster actually buy us?".
  • An IMO MSC.137(76) standard-manoeuvre validation for a new or modified hull.
✗ When not to use
  • A deep-sea voyage optimisation problem (use the SOOS / voyage-optimisation programme instead).
  • A pure resistance / propulsion question without a manoeuvring component (use Hydrodynamic Optimisation).
Methodology

How we run a project

  1. 01 / 04

    Coefficient determination

    Hull resistance, drift, yaw and aerodynamic load coefficients from CFD plus available trial data. The accuracy of the whole study depends on this step.

  2. 02 / 04

    Numerical model

    In-house MatLab/Simulink platform coupling hull, rudder, propellers, and thrusters in time domain.

  3. 03 / 04

    Metocean integration

    A full year of wind, wave, and current data at the operating site — not a worst-case scenario, the actual distribution.

  4. 04 / 04

    Probabilistic analysis

    Thousands of simulated berthings sampled from the metocean distribution. The output is a confidence interval, not a single number.

Tools & methods

Software stack we use

  • MatLab / Simulink (in-house)
  • KDS DemoShip · MatLab/Simulink time-domain manoeuvring
  • STAR-CCM+ (coefficient determination)
  • WAMIT (3D panel method, wave diffraction)
  • Ship@Sea
  • Metocean datasets (Copernicus, port authorities)
Regulatory context

Frameworks we help you satisfy

  • IMO MSC.137(76)Standard-manoeuvre acceptance criteria (turning circle, zigzag, spiral, crash-stop).
  • IMO MSC-MEPC.2/Circ.12 (autonomous vessels)Operability evidence required for MASS trial-and-approval framework.
  • PIANC Harbour Approach Channels (Report 121)Manoeuvring-margin and basin-design references for port studies.
  • OCIMF Mooring Equipment Guidelines (MEG4)Wind / current load conventions used in the coefficient set.
Vessel types

Where this discipline applies

  • Container ships and feeders (Corvo, Silver Mary)
  • Tankers, bulkers, multi-purpose cargo
  • Cruise and passenger vessels (port manoeuvring)
  • RoRo and RoPax
  • Tugs, pilot boats, harbour craft
  • Autonomous / unmanned surface vessels (MASS)
Selected work

Where this discipline was used

·01"Corvo" autonomous manoeuvring assessment, Vila do PortoMutualista, Grupo Bensaúde2024↗·02"Silver Mary" operability analysis, Vila do PortoMutualista, Grupo Bensaúde2024↗
Common questions

FAQ

Why probabilistic instead of worst-case?

Because the operator does not pay for worst-case days — they pay for the median day. Worst-case sets a safety envelope; probabilistic sets the operating envelope. Both are needed; we deliver both.

Can the model be re-run when the vessel changes?

Yes. The coefficient set and the simulator are handed over. A draft change, a thruster upgrade, or a different port can be tested in days.

Do you cover autonomous / unmanned vessels?

Yes. The same simulator answers the question of how much sensor and control authority an unmanned vessel needs to stay inside the operating envelope.

Research

Reference publications

  1. [1]Ribeiro e Silva, S. (2005). Parametrically excited roll in regular and irregular head seas. International Shipbuilding Progress, Vol. 52.
  2. [2]Ribeiro e Silva, S. et al. (2013). Prediction of parametric rolling in waves with time-domain non-linear strip theory. Ocean Engineering, Vol. 72.
  3. [3]Ribeiro e Silva, S., Varela, J. M. (2022). Ship Gyroscopic Roll Stabilisation. 41st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2022), ASME, Hamburg. Paper OMAE2022-7953. BEM with speed corrections + ST methodology for operability-index assessment on small patrol vessels.
Other capabilities

Eight other disciplines, one office

✦ Brief this service · Manoeuvrability

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